Farmer Sentiment Drops Amid Trade Policy Concerns and Tariff Fears

By Andi Anderson

Farmer sentiment is shifting due to growing concerns about agricultural trade policies, according to the latest Purdue Ag Economy Barometer survey. Although optimism remained following the November elections, confidence in the future of agriculture is now starting to fade.

James Mintert, professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, explained that while farmers were hopeful after the election, recent responses suggest a more cautious outlook. “Farmers became less confident about the future,” he said.

One of the most revealing findings in the survey is that 30% of farmers now expect exports to decrease over the next five years—the highest percentage ever recorded by the Barometer. In contrast, only about 10% expected a decline back in 2019.

Concerns about tariffs and trade policy have now surpassed interest rates as the top issue for farmers. According to the survey, 43% of farmers ranked trade policies as their primary concern, while 57% said tariffs will negatively impact the economy.

Mintert noted the U.S. has become a major meat export nation, and new trade restrictions could hurt exports significantly. Additionally, importing essential items like equipment, fertilizer, and potash will likely become more expensive, increasing costs for farmers and reducing their overall profits.

The survey also explored expectations around government support. About two-thirds of farmers believe that the government will introduce a compensation program to help stabilize the agricultural economy amid these trade-related challenges.

With input prices rising and export opportunities possibly shrinking, farmers are bracing for a difficult period. The findings reflect a growing need for strong policies that support both domestic agriculture and global trade relationships.

This shift in sentiment signals that farmers are closely watching how trade decisions will affect their livelihoods and are hoping for long-term solutions to ensure economic stability.

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