Corn and Soybean Farmers Show Sharp Sentiment Divide

By Andi Anderson

The latest findings from the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) show that farmer sentiment continues to vary widely across the U.S. agricultural sector. The survey, conducted among approximately 400 agricultural producers each month, provides valuable insights into how farmers view current conditions and future opportunities.

In September 2026, the Ag Economy Barometer reached 123, indicating overall optimism compared to the survey's base period. The Index of Current Conditions (ICC) stood at 105, while the Index of Future Expectations (IFE) reached 131. Although overall sentiment remained positive, responses revealed significant differences among individual producers, particularly corn and soybean growers.

Researchers Michael Langemeier, Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, and Niccolò Colussi, Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, noted that sentiment varies considerably between respondents and can change substantially over time.

The survey uses additional measures to understand these differences. One measure, called the "negativity" index, tracks the percentage of respondents whose overall sentiment score is zero. In September 2026, 12% of respondents fell into this category, compared with the long-term average of 8.7%. Survey data showed that negativity has generally remained above average throughout most of 2026.

Another important measure is the coefficient of variation (CV), which tracks differences in responses across participants. The September 2026 CV was 68.2%, higher than the long-term average of 64.2%, indicating greater variation in producer opinions.

Approximately 80% of survey participants reported growing corn and soybeans. When these farmers were divided into groups based on their sentiment levels, striking differences appeared. Farmers with below-average sentiment recorded an AEB score of 48, while those with above-average sentiment recorded an impressive 191.

Investment outlook also differed sharply. The Farm Capital Investment Index was only 13 among lower-confidence producers, compared with 66 among more optimistic farmers. Similar differences appeared in the Financial Performance Index, where producers with stronger sentiment expected better financial outcomes during the coming year.

High input costs remained the leading concern across both groups. Many producers pointed specifically to fuel and fertilizer expenses as major challenges. Farmers with higher sentiment were generally more optimistic about soybean exports and the future competitiveness of U.S. soybean production.

Views on the nation's direction also varied significantly. Only 24% of farmers in the lower-sentiment group believed the U.S. was moving in the right direction, compared with 69% among those with above-average sentiment. Concerns about policy uncertainty were also more common among less optimistic producers.

The results highlight the importance of looking beyond average survey scores. While the overall barometer suggests positive sentiment, individual farmer experiences and expectations differ widely.

Understanding these differences provides a clearer picture of producer confidence, financial concerns, investment intentions, and outlooks for the future of U.S. agriculture.

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