INFB Chief Economist Shares Key Insight from New WASDE Crop Update

By Andi Anderson

After the longest government shutdown in history, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its long-awaited World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. This November update provides essential information on the size of the 2025 crops and important export projections.

Indiana Farm Bureau Chief Economist Dr. Todd Davis shared his analysis shortly after the data was published, stressing the importance of the update for producers. He noted, “This has not been a normal marketing year, so these reports have huge impacts on markets and the decisions farmers are making.”

According to the new estimates, the national corn crop is expected to be about 12% larger than last year, reaching a record 16.75 billion bushels. In Indiana, corn yields are also expected to set a record; however, the overall crop size remains consistent with earlier September projections.

Dr. Davis explained the challenge of balancing high production with lower demand, adding that “Corn’s problem is that demand is not going to keep pace with supply, but export projections for corn have been a bright star. The 2025 export estimates will be even larger at 8% over 2024 numbers.”

The soybean outlook also shows strong production. Nationally, USDA projects record soybean yields, while Indiana’s soybean yield is expected to be similar to the 2024 level.

Dr. Davis pointed out that soybean markets continue to be influenced by trade patterns with China. He explained, “The focus in the soybean market has obviously been on exports because of the back and forth with China. The USDA actually reduced its export estimates from September based on China's purchases from South America. The USDA, as a matter of practice, does not anticipate policy or policy effects. Instead, they wait for data that supports increasing the estimated export use.”

Davis advised farmers to remain cautious when handling working capital and debt. He emphasized that current price projections do not ease concerns surrounding profitability or liquidity. He added, “The updated price projections do not ease the profitability and liquidity concerns of farmers. Before the government shutdown, the USDA discussed sending direct payments to farmers to serve as a bridge, helping them secure inputs and plan for the 2026 crops. The November report reinforces the need for those payments.”

The monthly WASDE report provides annual forecasts on supply and use for key crops, including grains, oilseeds, rice, and cotton. It remains an essential resource for understanding national and global market conditions.

Photo Credit: indiana-farm-bureau