Livestock Strength Drives Modest Gain in Farmer Sentiment

By Andi Anderson

U.S. farmer sentiment edged upward in October, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, which climbed three points to 129. The increase reflected stronger optimism among livestock producers, supported by robust profitability in beef markets, even as crop producers continued to report lower confidence due to shrinking margins.

The Index of Current Conditions rose eight points to 130, while the Index of Future Expectations remained relatively unchanged at 129. Purdue researchers described the results as “a tale of two economies,” with livestock operations thriving and crop farms facing tighter financial pressure.

The Farm Financial Performance Index fell sharply to 78, down ten points from September and 31 points lower than in May. This decline highlights weakening expectations for crop producers, even as livestock producers reported stability similar to last year. Despite this, the Farm Capital Investment Index increased by nine points to 62, reflecting livestock producers’ willingness to reinvest in their operations.

When asked how they would use a potential USDA supplementary payment, 53% of farmers said they would pay down debt, 25% would strengthen working capital, while fewer planned to purchase new machinery or cover living expenses.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index also improved, rising seven points to 113, as more producers anticipated farmland values to increase in the coming year. About 30% expect land prices to rise, reversing four months of declines.

“U.S. farmers are adjusting to ongoing economic pressures in different ways,” said Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Livestock producers are seeing strong returns, while many crop producers are planning management changes for 2026 to handle tighter margins.”

Survey results also revealed shifts in production strategies: 29% of corn growers plan to reduce phosphorus use, 27% will choose lower-cost seeds, and 16% will cut nitrogen applications next season.

Although policy uncertainty continues to affect sentiment, 70% of producers believe the U.S. is moving in the right direction, reflecting cautious optimism as farmers adapt to evolving market conditions.

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