By Jamie Martin
The Mississippi River at Memphis, Tennessee, has dipped into negative gauge readings, pressuring U.S. grain exports and soybean basis. Basis values, which often mirror river levels, are falling more sharply than in past years.
On September 2, 2025, the U.S. Coast Guard placed restrictions on barge drafts and tow sizes from Missouri to Louisiana. With fewer barges moving, less grain is making its way to New Orleans for shipment abroad.
University of Arkansas economist Hunter Biram said the combination of lower water and absent Chinese purchases is driving soybean basis down. Last year, China had already purchased nearly 3 million tons of soybeans by this time, but this year there are no sales.
USDA reports show U.S. soybean export commitments at 7.2 million tons so far, well below last year’s 10.2 million tons. Mexico is the top buyer of the 2025 crop, with Pakistan, Taiwan, Egypt, and Japan also active.
Some farmers may hold soybeans in storage, but without major new Chinese buying, ending stocks could increase. Current projections place soybean stocks at 290 million bushels for 2025/26.
Corn exports are faring better, with strong sales to Mexico despite record U.S. production weighing on prices. Rice markets, however, are struggling, with exports down and prices hovering near five-year lows.
“By then, a few months of the key U.S. export window has passed,” said Scott Stiles, economics program associate at the University of Arkansas. “The September to January timeframe is the best opportunity the U.S. has to ship soybeans to China before the Brazil harvest is available.”
Photo Credit: gettyimages-zoran-zeremski
Categories: National