U.S. soybean crop set to soar in 2024

By Andi Anderson

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected a record-breaking soybean crop for the U.S. and Indiana in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

The report forecasts that the U.S. will produce 4.58 billion bushels of soybeans, while Indiana is expected to contribute 346.8 million bushels to this total.

The USDA's October report also adjusted Indiana’s average corn and soybean yields. Corn yield estimates dropped by eight bushels per acre to 202 bushels, while soybean yields fell by three bushels to 60 bushels per acre.

Dr. Todd Davis, Chief Economist of Indiana Farm Bureau (INFB), explained that the report brought some relief by lowering corn ending stocks and keeping soybean stocks unchanged. However, Dr. Davis emphasized that despite this, a large inventory remains a concern for farmers.

Nationally, corn stocks are projected to increase by 640 million bushels compared to the 2022 crop. If this is realized, 2024 will see the largest corn ending stocks since 2019, limiting price potential.

Similarly, the USDA projects a soybean stock-to-use ratio of 12.5%, the highest since 2019, meaning soybean prices could face similar challenges without an increase in domestic demand or a drop in production from South America.

Dr. Davis also suggested that farmers should update their crop and cash flow budgets in light of these projections, as they may face tight profit margins going into 2024.

Managing cash flow and reassessing profitability will be key for farmers during this period of large inventories and potential price stagnation.

The WASDE report is updated monthly and provides essential forecasts for U.S. and global agriculture markets. For more information, visit the USDA’s publications page.

Photo Credit: usda